Sometimes history behaves like a drunk at a wedding – circling the dance floor with a glass of raki, convinced it’s reinventing itself.
And here we are: a century after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire – that grand imperial machine that once sent overweight bureaucrats to squeeze taxes out of Galilean peasants – a familiar silhouette reappears on the horizon.

This time, it’s not a sultan in a turban with seventy concubines.
It’s a NATO-certified politician in a tailored suit, passport stamped “Western Ally,” answering to the name Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

So how dangerous is he, really?
Is Erdoğan just another Middle Eastern strongman with theatrical instincts and a fragile ego?
Or is he something far more serious – a modern Ottoman sultan attempting to resurrect imperial ambition under the comforting disguise of elections, economic growth, and Western diplomacy?

The Man, the Myth, the Imam

You cannot understand Erdoğan without understanding the war he wages inside Turkey itself:
Atatürk versus Allah.

Where Mustafa Kemal Atatürk dreamed of a secular republic that spoke fluent French and drank its whiskey neat, Erdoğan quotes Quranic verses on Instagram and dreams of a mosque on every hilltop.

In Erdoğan’s worldview, Turkey does not need to apologize for its imperial past – it needs to reclaim it.

Under the respectable banners of “economic growth,” “moderate Islamic leadership,” and “national revival,” Erdoğan has overseen a deep and systematic Islamization of Turkey:

• Religious schools expanded
• Secular judges dismissed
• Journalists jailed
• Political purges normalized
• Ramadan elevated from tradition to state ideology

Check, check, and check.

This is not accidental drift. It is design.

NATO Member or Middle Eastern Power Broker?

If Erdoğan were merely a nationalist with a superiority complex, the world might shrug and move on.
But Erdoğan plays the entire chessboard – simultaneously.

On one hand:

• NATO member
• Buyer of F-16s
• Occasional peace broker between Russia and Ukraine

On the other:

• Russian missile systems
• Islamist militias in Syria
• Cozy relations with Hamas
• Patronage of anti-Western regimes from Qatar to Libya

It’s like watching someone play tennis with two rackets – and then realizing he’s also building his own court.

And then there are the diplomatic gems:

• “Liberate Jerusalem” speeches
• Threats against Greece
• Blackmailing Sweden and Finland under the guise of “security concerns”
• Zero shame, zero restraint

Erdoğan understands something the West refuses to admit:
The West has no teeth.
So he kicks it repeatedly – then sends an apology letter in broken English – and gets more military aid.

Israel: Enemy Disguised as Mediator

Israel and Turkey once had a love affair.
In the 1990s, Israeli fighter jets trained over Anatolia, trade flourished, and Ankara enjoyed the perks of being a “preferred partner” in the Middle East.

Then Erdoğan arrived – and the romance turned into an Ottoman soap opera.

It started with trickles of Islamic-flavored antisemitism.
Escalated with moral lectures during Israeli military operations.
And finally exploded with the Mavi Marmara incident, when Erdoğan declared diplomatic war on the IDF in the name of “human rights” – specifically, the rights of IHH activists who believe world peace begins when Jews disappear.

Since then:

• Ambassadors expelled
• Ambassadors restored
• Ambassadors expelled again

Turkey-Israel relations now depend entirely on Erdoğan’s weekly political needs:
Does he need Muslim Brotherhood votes – or Israeli tech investments?

But beneath the diplomatic theater lies the real story:
Erdoğan’s Turkey has become a global hub for Islamist movements.

Hamas.
Muslim Brotherhood.
Salafist networks.
Former ISIS operatives.

They’re all there.
They’re all welcome.
And the objective is clear: weaken Israel, fracture American alliances, and – metaphorically and ideologically – return to Jerusalem.

The Most Dangerous Thing About Him? He’s Not Crazy

Here’s the real problem: Erdoğan is not reckless.
He is not unstable.
He is not impulsive.

He is a seasoned strategist, a master demagogue, and a political magician.

Like an old-school Ottoman general, he weaponizes:

• Religion
• Media
• Courts
• Money
• Blackmail
• Western guilt

While Arab dictators collapsed during the Arab Spring, Erdoğan survived – because he controlled both the carrot and the stick, the mosque and the newsroom, the ballot box and the prison cell.

That is what makes him dangerous.

He offers the world a seductive alternative model:
Not Western democracy.
Not classic fascism.
But Islamic authoritarianism wrapped in Western packaging.

It feels “half-democratic” – if you’re blind in one eye.

The Sultan of Our Time

So how dangerous is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?

As dangerous as Hamas in a suit.
As dangerous as a smiling street cat that knows exactly where your food is.
As dangerous as an ideology that whispers moderation while empowering every enemy of Israel.

He doesn’t shout “Death to Zionists.”
He invites them to Islamic conferences.

He doesn’t attack Israel directly.
He shelters its enemies.

He doesn’t build an invading army.
He builds regional influence – one state at a time.

That is why Erdoğan must be watched with clear eyes – not hatred, but understanding.
Because what he offers the world is not a new Middle East.

It is the old Middle East,
with better branding.